After two years of speculation, finally, the final showdown is here!
Praise the Lord that someone has the ball to dissolve the parliament! Apparently, the previous parliament term is the longest in Malaysia's history with span of four years and 11 months. I guess everyone was so tired of the guessing game on when the election will be. Even Dr M could not wait for more.
Wait no more as the Election Commission will announce the date of nomination and the big D Day of the general election.
So what is your prediction? I'm not Oracle so i can't predict the result and i don't dare to predict because i always thought Barisan Nasional (BN) would have secured two third majority in 2008 general election but my prediction went wrong when it suffered the worst political tsunami ever - losing Kedah, Perak and two jewel states of Peninsular ; Penang and Selangor to Pakatan Rakyat (PR).
So how will BN fare in this general election? My wizard ball says BN will not secure two third majority in Parliament they will win Kedah back but PR will win Penang, Selangor, Kelantan and of course Perak state election. Come on, Perakians are still very upset on what happened in 2009 when three members of State Legislative Council declared themselves as independent and ended up the silver state went back to BN. Definitely Perakians like me are still holding the qualm and vent thier anger on the ballot paper in the upcoming election.
Opposition Pact has tremendous momentum between 2004 and 2008 election. In 11th election back in 2004, the Opposition Pact only garnered merely 34% of the total votes. But in 12th election 2008, the Pakatan Rakyat (Opposition PAct disbanded after PAS, Keadilan, DAP and Malaysian People's Party formed an alliance named Pakatan Rakyat) achieved 46% of the total votes. A difference of 12% between two general elections is an indeed good performance, if they remain or propel more momentum in 13th General Election, they will have the majority to form the government.
What if PR really wins the federal level? Though Najib has promised for smooth transition if his ruling party loses, but come on, do you think he will let it go so easily?
Political weather is really hard to predict. You never know the strongholds of BN like Johor, Melaka, Negeri Sembilan and Pahang will swing to opposition. The strongholds in East Malaysia are at risks for BN with Project IC in Sabah and new graft allegation against Taib. Maybe there will be a swing of vote over there too.
What if BN really wins but with small margin? In that case, it will be very difficult position for Najib as the government is not strong and definitely there will be an internal force to dethrone him as Prime Minister. Look, we witnessed how Tun Abdullah Badawi disgracefully forced by his own party (don't forget Dr M is still very influential in who's in and who's out) to relinquish his post and hand over to Najib. If Najib performs poorly, will the members of UMNO still pledge their support to him? Well, yes but somewhat. I believe some of the opportunists there will shift their support to No.2, yes, Muhyiddin Yassin since Najib performs badly in the election. Who want a leader who shows poor performance in the election? They will want someone new to lead the party. Do you want Muhyddin to be your Prime Minister? Never. I rather to have Najib to be Prime Minister than Muhyddin.
Whatever it is,I bet these coming days will be dirty, fierce, upbeat and history in making.
The decision is at your hand. Please do go back to your constituency and vote.
For more commentaries on GE 13, please click here